Kenneth Rogoff, um dos mais respeitados economistas mundiais e autor de um dos melhores livros sobre crises financeiras ("This Time is Different", escrito em co-autoria com Carmen Reinhart), continua a defender que a crise da dívida soberana europeia só será resolvida com uma reestruturação da dívida de alguns países. Aqui está um excerto do seu artigo de opinião mais recente:
"Europe is in constitutional crisis. No one seems to have the power to
impose a sensible resolution of its peripheral countries’ debt crisis.
Instead of restructuring the manifestly unsustainable debt burdens of
Portugal, Ireland, and Greece (the PIGs), politicians and policymakers
are pushing for ever-larger bailout packages with ever-less realistic
austerity conditions. Unfortunately, they are not just “kicking the can
down the road,” but pushing a snowball down a mountain.
True, for the moment, the problem is still economically manageable.
Eurozone growth is respectable, and the PIGs account for only 6% of the
eurozone’s GDP. But by stubbornly arguing that that these countries are
facing a liquidity crisis, rather than a solvency problem, euro
officials are putting entire system at risk. Major eurozone economies
like Spain and Italy have huge debt problems of their own, especially
given anemic growth and a manifest lack of competitiveness. The last
thing they need is for people to be led to believe that an implicit
transfer union is already in place, and that reform and economic
restructuring can wait.
European Union officials argue that it would be catastrophic to
restructure any member’s debts proactively. It is certainly the case
that contagion will rage after any Greek restructuring. It will stop
spreading only when Germany constructs a firm and credible firewall,
presumably around Spanish and Italian central-government debt. This is
exactly the kind of hardheaded solution that one would see in a truly
integrated currency area."
O resto do artigo pode ser lido aqui,
1 comentário:
Crise nos Jesuitas/cristãos ou do protestantismo maquinal? Estamos no patamar da globalização e dos direitos (distintos nesta área das religiões ditas monoteístas) e das influencias planetárias e diasporas destas civilizações.
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