06 dezembro 2010


Uma visão de fora que mostra bem a percepção que os outros têm de nós:
"Portugal is seeing all sorts of its economic dynamics go into reverse, except: “The only thing that is not likely to move in reverse is debt levels. There are two main reasons for this. First, the measures the government are adopting to reduce the fiscal deficit will likely result in a deflationary dynamic, boosting the debt-to-GDP ratio.
“Second is Portugal’s strong reliance on international investors to fund its debt. 80% of Portugal’s public debt is held by foreigners (Portugal is very similar to Ireland in this respect), and its total external debt position amounts to 90% of its GDP. The deflationary correction elicited by the austerity measures will in itself be a reason for outside investors to stay away from Portuguese debt.
“This will continue to be a source of vulnerability because it leaves the country exposed to the continuing risk of having financial markets shutter to its debt. Portugal’s government debt, at 82% of GDP, currently sits at less than that of Greece (126%) and Ireland (almost 100%). Yet adding in corporate and private debt, Portugal’s debt-to-GDP ratio rises to over 250%. Foreign investors are unlikely to tolerate such situations for much longer. It thus likely Portugal will have to apply for an EU/IMF bailout in a matter of weeks rather than months.”

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