Há uma nova estrela emergente no mundo económico. Para espanto de muitos, essa estrela chama-se Brasil, durante décadas conhecido como o país do futuro cujo futuro nunca chegava. Ora, contra as previsões de muitos, parece que o futuro do Brasil está finalmente a chegar. Na última década, o crescimento económico brasileiro atingiu já não vistos há mais de três décadas e as tremendas desigualdades sociais parecem finalmente ter começado a decrescer (pelo menos em termos relativos). O Brasil internacionaliza-se cada vez mais (como o recente anúncio de investimento da Embraer em Portugal o demonstra) e diversifica-se, tanto a nível industrial como agrícola. Esperemos que assim continue.
Ainda por cima, há pouco tempo foram descobertas enormes reservas petrolíferas na costa brasileira, augurando ainda mais receitas para o Estado e para o país. Paradoxalmente, esta pode ser a pior notícia que o Brasil poderia ter. Numa altura em que a economia mostra grande dinamismo e uma crescente diversificação das actividades económicas, a descoberta dessas reservas petrolíferas fará certamente valorizar o real (pois haverá maior procura de moeda brasileira), o que poderá afectar negativamente os sectores exportadores do país, bem como outras áreas da economia que poderão menos competitivas com a valorização do real.
^
Mas, esperemos que isso não aconteça ou, a acontecer, esperemos que a recente vitalidade do Brasil seja suficiente para aguentar o impacto que a valorização do real terá no sector exportador brasileiro. Entretanto, saudemos os feitos económicos do Brasil, que parece finalmente ter deixado de continuar permanentemente adiado.
PS. Vale a pena ver aqui uma reportagem do New York Times sobre o crescimento brasileiro.
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