11 março 2011


O Portuguese Economy é o palco de um debate sobre a necessidade ou não de Portugal ter de recorrer ao resgate do FEEF e do FMI. A pergunta é "Does Portugal need a bailout?", e eu, o Pedro Lains, o Pedro Martins, o Pedro Pita Barros, Paulo Trigo Pereira, e o Francesco Franco damos as nossas opiniões sobre o assunto. 
Aqui está um excerto do meu texto:
"Why is a bailout almost inevitable? Because the credit constraints and the lack of financing of the economy are untenable, the debt dynamics are unsustainable, and because, frankly, there is a self-sustaining belief that Portugal is the next country to fall in the European sovereign debt domino.
Independently of what will happen in the next few days, the fact is that Portugal has a very serious debt problem in its hands, which will likely not go away with a mere bailout. Just to put things into perspective, in 2011, Portugal will have its highest public debt (as % of GDP) of the last 160 years, and the largest external debt in the last 120 years. Our public debt will be higher than 91% of GDP, and that does not even include the debt of public enterprises or the future debt already committed with the private-public partnerships that substituted for public investment in the last decade. In addition, the country’s gross external debt amounts to more than 240% of GDP, and net external debt is around 110% of GDP. The economy has not grown significantly in the last decade, and there is no major indication (with the possible exception of exports) to make us believe that we are on a prelude for an unforeseen economic miracle. To make things worse, government policies have been close to disastrous, and have only aggravated Portugal’s economic ailments. In short, the situation is dire, and it is difficult to envision any scenario in which a bailout will not take place, even though the latter might not be enough to help resolve Portugal’s debt problems in the medium and long term.
The fact is that the only reason that has prevented Portugal to ask for a bailout are the political costs that will be associated with such a decision... " 
Pode ler o resto do texto aqui, onde poderá ver igualmente a opinião dos outros intervenientes.

1 comentário:

António Parente disse...

Um debate muito interessante. O Paulo Trigo Pereira foi meu colega de curso.